Orbán's Controversial Peace Tour: Navigating the EU Presidency's Complexities

Viktor Orbán's "Ukraine peace tour" to Moscow and Beijing, undertaken shortly after Hungary assumed the Presidency of the Council of the EU on July 1st, has sparked widespread criticism and accusations of misleading the public. As the leader of a member state, Orbán's actions have raised concerns about the role and limitations of the Council presidency, as well as the potential implications for the European Union's unity and decision-making processes.

Navigating the Complexities of the EU Presidency

The Presidency's Technical Nature and Safeguards

The role of the Council presidency is primarily technical in nature, with the country assuming the presidency responsible for chairing meetings of the different Council configurations, except for the Foreign Affairs Council. To mitigate the risks associated with a weaker, inexperienced, or problematic member state assuming the presidency, the "trio of presidencies" system was institutionalized. This safeguard was introduced after the EU's 2004-2007 enlargement, with the aim of ensuring that the duties of the presidency are fulfilled without disrupting the EU's operations.

Limiting the Powers of Individual Countries

The architects of the Lisbon Treaty were cognizant of the potential risks posed by regimes like Orbán's taking on the EU presidency. They sought to limit the powers of individual countries in this role, fearing that such regimes could one day be tasked with leading the EU. Their concerns have now been realized, as Orbán's actions during his "peace tour" have raised questions about the extent to which he can represent the interests of the entire European Union.

Orbán's Misleading Rhetoric and the EU's Institutional Concerns

Orbán's "peace tour" has been criticized for misleading the public, both in Hungary and abroad. The general public may not be fully aware of the technical nature of the Council presidency and the limitations it entails. However, Orbán's foreign counterparts, particularly in Russia and China, are likely to have a more nuanced understanding of the EU's inner workings and may seek to exploit any perceived weaknesses.

The Fragility of EU Leadership and the Void Filled by Orbán

The current state of EU leadership appears to be marked by fragility and uncertainty. The heads of the EU institutions, such as Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, are preoccupied with securing their own positions, while other national leaders, like Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, are grappling with domestic challenges. In this context, Orbán has seized the opportunity to take the lead, as he perceives a void in EU leadership that he can fill.

Orbán's Potential to Influence Future Peace Negotiations

Orbán's actions during the "peace tour" raise concerns about his potential to influence future peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. Given Russia's current difficulties and Putin's interest in ending the conflict, the next peace conference may well include both Zelenskyy and Putin. In this scenario, Orbán could be the only European leader present, potentially shaping the agenda and advocating for issues such as the rights of minorities in Ukraine under a future settlement. This prospect is particularly worrying, as Orbán's motivations appear to be driven by personal and financial interests rather than the broader interests of the European Union.

The Implications of Orbán's Actions for the EU

Orbán's "peace tour" and his attempts to position himself as a key player in the resolution of the Ukraine conflict have significant implications for the European Union. His actions risk undermining the EU's unity and decision-making processes, as well as potentially introducing more corruption into the reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. The EU must navigate these challenges carefully, ensuring that its values and principles are upheld while also addressing the complex geopolitical realities at play.